Insurgency in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa

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Insurgency in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
Part of the war on terror and the spillover of the War in Afghanistan (2001–2021)
Intelligence map: Navy intelligence maps shows the districts of the former FATA in blue and rest of Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa in green.
Date 16 March 2004 – present (20 years, 1 month, 1 week and 4 days) First phase: 16 March 2004 – 22 February 2017 Second phase: 23 February 2017 – present Location Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province (including the former Federally Administered Tribal Areas), Pakistan Status Ongoing (Low-level insurgency)[5] First phase (War 2004 – 2017) (Beginning of war Order of Battle) Battle of Wanna Operation al-Mizan Battle of Mirali Waziristan Accord (short-lived peace agreement in North Waziristan) Operation Sunrise First Battle of Swat Operation Zalzala Battle of Bajaur Operation Sirat-e-Mustaqeem Second Battle of Swat Operation Rah-e-Nijat 2009 Khyber Pass offensive Operation Janbaz Nizam-e-Adl Regulation 2009 (failed peace agreement) Mohmand Offensive Operation Black Thunderstorm Orakzai and Kurram offensive Killing of Osama bin Laden Operation Koh-e-Sufaid Operation Rah-e-Shahadat Operation Khyber Operation Zarb-e-Azb Second phase (Insurgency 2017 – present) (Beginning of nationwide large scale operations against insurgency) Operation Radd-ul-Fasaad 2600 Kilometer Afghanistan-Pakistan border barrier fenced as of 2023 Large number of insurgents killed while some fled to Afghanistan[6] Heavy insurgent losses and substantial reduction in insurgent activity[7][8] Tribal areas merged into Pakistan, tribal law abolished and writ of constitution established as of 2018[9] End of drone strikes conducted by the United States in Pakistan Jundallah, Tehreek-e-Khilafat, Jamaat-ul-Ahrar, and the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan join ISIL[3][10][4] Jamaat-ul-Ahrar rejoins the TTP[1] 2022 Pakistani airstrikes in Afghanistan Intermittent series of multilateral talks underway with groups specially with Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan[11][12][13] 2022 ceasefire ends[14][15] Deportation of 1.1 million foreigners illegally settling in Pakistan[16]
Belligerents
Pakistan Pakistan Armed Forces  Pakistan Army  Pakistan Air Force  Pakistan Navy Civil Armed Forces Frontier Corps Frontier Constabulary Pakistan Rangers Pakistani Intelligence Community Pakistan Police Counter Terrorism Department  United States (see Drone strikes in Pakistan, until 2018)	Insurgents Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan Jamaat-ul-Ahrar[note 1] Tehreek-e-Nafaz-e-Shariat-e-Mohammadi[note 2] Lashkar-e-Islam[note 3] al-Qaeda Lashkar-e-Jhangvi Jundallah (until 2014) Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (until 2015) Turkistan Islamic Party (until 2015)[2] ISIL-aligned groups Khorasan Province Jundallah[3] Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan[4] Jamaat-ul-Ahrar[1]
Commanders and leaders
Asif Ali Zardari (2024–present) Asim Munir (2022–present) Former military commanders Ashfaq Kayani Raheel Sharif Qamar Javed Bajwa Masood Aslam Tariq Khan Sanaullah Khan Niazi † Mushtaq Ahmed Baig † Ameer Faisal Alavi † Colonel Imam † Rao Qamar Suleman Tahir Rafique Butt Former head of states Pervez Musharraf (until 2008) Asif Ali Zardari (2008–2013) Mamnoon Hussain (2013–2018) Arif Alvi (2018–2024) Former army officers Colonel Mujib-ur-Rehman † Lt. Col. Muhammad Hassan Haider † Lt. Col. Haroon-ul-Islam † Capt. Wali Wazir †[17] Capt. Akash Rabbani †[18] Capt. Saad Bin Amir †[19] Lt. Nasir Khalid †[20] Capt. Abdullah Zafar †[21] Capt. Muhammad Sabih †[22] Lt. Agha Muqadas †[23] Major Abdullah Shah †[24]	Noor Wali Mehsud Maulana Fazlullah † Khan Said 'Sajna' † Adnan Rashid Mangal Bagh † Hakimullah Mehsud † Abdullah Mehsud † Baitullah Mehsud † Maulvi Nazir † Hafiz Gul Bahadur † Omar Khalid Khorasani †[25] Khalid Balti † Azam Tariq † Shahidullah Shahid † Mullah Dadullah † Wali-ur-Rehman † Qari Hussain † Faqir Mohammed (POW)[26] Maulvi Omar (POW) Muslim Khan (POW) Hayatullah (POW) Shah Dauran † Sher Muhammad Qusab † Nek Muhammad Wazir † Abdul Rashid Ghazi † Sufi Muhammad (POW)[27] al-Qaeda Ayman al-Zawahiri † Osama bin Laden † Ilyas Kashmiri † Mohammad Hasan Khalil al-Hakim † Atiyah Abd al-Rahman † Abu Laith al-Libi † Abu Yahya al-Libi † Abu-Zaid al Kuwaiti † Saeed al-Masri † Fahid Mohammed Ally Msalam † Sheikh Ahmed Salim Swedan † Sheikh Fateh †[28] Adnan Gulshair el Shukrijumah †[29] Asim Umar † Khalid Sheikh Mohammed (POW) Abu Faraj al-Libbi (POW) Ramzi bin al-Shibh (POW) Abu Zubaydah (POW) ISIL Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi † Hafiz Saeed Khan †[30] Abdul Rahman Ghaleb † Abdul Rahim Muslim Dost (2014–2015)[31][32] Usman Ghazi †[4][33] IMU Group Usman Ghazi † Tohir Yuldashev † Najmiddin Jalolov † Abu Usman Adil † ETIM Group Emeti Yakov † Memetimin Memet (WIA)
Strength
Pakistan 200,000 Pakistani troops[34][35] Unknown no. of air squadrons of Navy and Pakistan Air Force fighter jets, including JF-17 and F-16 jets[36] ~10,000 Frontier Corps United States UAV drones CIA operatives U.S. Special Operations Forces[37]	~25,000 TTP militia[38] ~2,000 Lashkar-e-Islam militia[39] ~1,000 TNSM militia[40] 300–3,000 al-Qaeda militants[41]  ISIL Jundallah: 12,000–20,000 (disputed)[3] IMU: 500[citation needed]–1,000[42]
Casualties and losses
Pakistan: 4,631 soldiers and LEAs killed (per SATP)[7][8] 8,214 killed soldiers and LEAs and 14,583 wounded (per the Watson Institute; by mid-2016)[43] United States: 15 soldiers killed (2010)[44]	29,398 militants killed (per SATP)[7][8] 31,000 killed (per the Watson Institute; by mid-2016)[43]
9,394 civilians and 1,946 unidentified killed (per SATP)[7][8] 22,100 civilians killed (per the Watson Institute; by mid-2016)[43] 46,872 killed overall (per SATP)[7][8] 61,549 killed overall (per the Watson Institute; by mid-2016)[43] 41,819 killed overall all over Pakistan (Uppsala Conflict Data Program; 1989–2019)[45] Over 3.44 million civilians displaced (2009)[46] Over 6 million civilians displaced (2003–2019)[47]

The insurgency in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, also known as the War in North-West Pakistan or Pakistan's war on terror, is an ongoing armed conflict involving Pakistan and Islamist militant groups such as the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Jundallah, Lashkar-e-Islam (LeI), TNSM, al-Qaeda, and their Central Asian allies such as the ISIL–Khorasan (ISIL), Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, East Turkistan Movement, Emirate of Caucasus, and elements of organized crime.^[48][49][50] Formerly a war, it is now a low-level insurgency as of 2017.^[5]

The armed conflict began in 2004 when tensions rooted in the Pakistan Army's search for al-Qaeda fighters in Pakistan's mountainous Waziristan area (in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas) escalated into armed resistance.^[51] Pakistan's actions were presented as its contribution to the U.S. War on terror.^[52][53] The al-Qaeda terrorists fled Afghanistan seek refuge in the bordering Federally Administered Tribal Areas. Pakistan had already joined US led War on terror after 9/11 attacks under the Mussharaf administration. However, after the US invasion of Afghanistan in 2001–2002, Al-Qaeda and its Taliban patrons crossed over Pakistan-Afghanistan border to seek refuge in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas, Pakistan. Resultantly, militants established control over seven tribal agencies of FATA.

Pakistan Army under the Pervez Musharraf administration launched operations with Battle of Wanna to hunt down al-Qaeda fighters. However, Pakistan security forces did not target Afghan Taliban as Taliban were not responsible for the twin-tower attacks. Subsequently, Pakistan Army failed to achieve its desired results. Pakistan Army's failure resulted in the Waziristan Accord which is considered to be failure on the part of army and Pervez Musharraf as the accord ceded FATA territories to the militants.

The situation in FATA further complicated with the emergence of Tehreek-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). Local Pakistani jihadi fighters that have previously fought Soviets, with support from Central Asian militant groups,^[54] Arab fighters of al-Qaeda, in 2007 formed TTP.^[54][55] The foreign militants were joined by Pakistani non-military veterans of the Afghan War to the west, which subsequently established the TTP and other militant umbrella organisations, such as Lashkar-e-Islam.

The TTP, beside FATA, managed to capture four settle districts of North-Western Frontier Province (modern day Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa). The districts such as Buner, Dir, Shangla and Swat fell out of writ of Government of Pakistan by 2007 as militants flashed into mainland of Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa further expanding their influence beyond peripheries of FATA.

The TTP emerged as one of the most lethal group aiming to overthrow Government of Pakistan in Islamabad and replace it with a Taliban-style government as it denounced Pakistan alliance with US against the principals of Islam. TTP declared its jihad was legitimate as Pakistan was siding with US to attack a Muslim nation Afghanistan.

The insurgency turned into a critical issue for Pakistan when the Pakistan Army held a siege on the mosque of Lal-Masjid Islamabad to free foreigners taken hostage by the militants. Naming this operation as an attack on the "House of Allah", TTP declared Pakistan Army as an agent of Western powers and started a bloody campaigns of suicide bombings throughout the country. Due to the Lal-Masjid Operation number of suicide attacks jumped from 10 in 2006 to 61 in 2007.^[56] Pakistan Armed Forces also bore the burnt of number of terrorist attacks such as PNS Mehran attack, Kamra Airbase attack, and GHQ Rawalpindi attack.

The deteriorated law and order situation saw assassination of former prime minister Benazir Bhutto in 2007 which was also claimed by the TTP. The assassination of Benazir Bhutto led to the demise of President Pervez Musharraf regime.

Pakistan with the exit of Pervez Musharraf got a fresh civil-military setup under the President Asif Zardari-led government of PPP in 2008. Pakistan Army also witnessed a change of guard. Its new COAS Ashfaq Pervez Kayani decided to take on TTP and its allies. Under General Kayani's tenure Pakistan turned the tide in its war against terrorism. In to order contain the militants General Kayani launched series of military campaigns to recapture areas fallen in the hands of militants from 2007 to 2013 beginning with Operation Sherdil. This campaign that launched by Kayani ended with success of Operation Zarb-e-Azb in late 2016. Pakistan Army under the Kayani Doctrine was able to capture six tribal agencies and four settled districts of Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa including Swat and South Waziristan, which were two strongholds of TTP.

The last operation Zarb-e-Azb was conducted by the Kayani's successor General Raheel Sharif to purge last remaining agency of North Waziristan from the clutches of TTP. Thus, Pakistan Armed Forces successfully recaptured seven tribal agencies of FATA and four districts of Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa by conducting a bloody armed campaign from 2007 to 2016.

With help of military campaigns Pakistan Army was able to push back TTP into Afghanistan from where it continues to launch terrorist attacks on Pakistan. By 2014, the casualty rates from terrorism in the country as a whole dropped by 40% as compared to 2011–2013, with even greater drops noted in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa^[57] despite a large massacre of schoolchildren by TTP terrorists in the province in December 2014. The reduction in hostilities eventually changed the conflict from a war to a relatively low-level conflict.^[58]

The TTP after success of Operation Zarb-e-Azb 2016 lost territory within Pakistan that is why terrorists started to act in the form of sleeper cells by 2017. To continue their nefarious activities Jamat-ul-Ahrar, one of offshoot of TTP launched Operation Ghazi in 2017 to reignite the insurgency. Pakistan Army in order to counter Operation Ghazi of TTP and sanitize country from the remaining militants, abettors, facilitators, and sleeper cells launched Operation Radd-ul-Fasaad under its commander COAS Qamar Javed Bajwa. This operation was launched in order clean-off militants that escaped across country due to army's earlier campaigns in FATA. The operation was aimed at consolidating efforts of previous military campaigns.

As a result of Radd-ul-Fasaad, TTP suffered huge losses and divided into various splinter groups that weakened its operational capabilities. According to Delhi-based South Asian Terrorism Portal (SATP) 2019 was post peaceful year for Pakistan since the time of start of insurgency in 2004. According to SATP, The suicide attacks in Pakistan in 2019 was decreased to 8 from record high of 85 in 2009.^[56]

Pakistan Army under the command of General Bajwa started to fence 2600 kilometer long Pakistan-Afghanistan border in 2017 and construct around 1000 military forts in order to capitalize on gains that it has made against the militancy in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa. Around 67 wings of Frontier Corps were raised to patrol the bordering areas.^[59] Moreover, FATA under 25th Amendment in 2018 was merged with Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa in order to bring it under the ambit of Constitution of Pakistan so that it could be governed more effectively. The 25th Amendment replaced colonial-era constitutional framework of Frontier Crime Regulation.

Since the fall of Kabul in August 2021, Pakistan is confronted with renewed threat of terrorism as TTP has been injected with fresh dose of strength due to the victory of Taliban in Afghanistan. The fresh recruits, easy access to US made weapons, and a sanctuary under the shadow of Afghan Taliban have once again bolstered the TTP to again target Pakistan. Resultantly Pakistan suffered 13 suicide attacks by the end 2022.^[56]

In 2022 After negotiations, the TTP and the government announced a ceasefire in June 2022. However, in November 2022, the TTP renounced the ceasefire and called for nationwide attacks against Pakistan.^[60]

On 7 April 2023, Pakistan's National Security Committee under leadership of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif decided to launch a new military operation to root out militants posing threats to its western regions. The meeting was also attended by the Pakistan's new military leadership COAS Asim Munir and CJCSC Sahir Shamshad Mirza.^[61]

The war has depleted the country's manpower resources, and the outcomes outlined a deep effect on its national economy, since Pakistan had joined the American-led War on Terror.^[62] As of 2018, according to Ministry of Finance (MoF) statistics and mathematical data survey collections, the economy has suffered direct and indirect losses as high as $126.79 billion since 2001 because of Pakistan's role as a "frontline state".^[63][64][65] According to the MoF-issued Pakistan Economic Survey 2010–2011, "Pakistan has never witnessed such a devastating social and economic upheaval in its industry, even after dismemberment of the country by a direct war with India in 1971."^[65]

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